Crypto macro influencer scorecard
We measure the market calls of 47 well-known crypto accounts on X against what BTC, ETH, SOL, altcoins and meme coins did next. The rules were fixed before looking at any result.
Consensus of the most accurate accounts
Not enough history yet: the consensus is published with a 7-day delay once it exists.
Ranked accounts · 40
Accounts with at least 10 measured episodes, ordered by their hit rate shrunk towards the average (a short lucky streak does not top the list).
| # | Account | Episodes | Hit rate (95 % interval) | vs best baseline | Follow vs always-bull | Later unavailable | BTC stance 7 days ago | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @DrProfitCryptoTrader / TA | 73 | 59 % 47–71 % | +7.3 pp | +3.8 pp | 0 / 195 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 73 episodes · vs best baseline +7.3 pp · follow vs always-bull +3.8 pp · later unavailable 0 / 195 |
| 2 | @blknoiz06Memecoin KOL | 51 | 58 % 43–73 % | +9.9 pp | +2.5 pp | 0 / 133 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 51 episodes · vs best baseline +9.9 pp · follow vs always-bull +2.5 pp · later unavailable 0 / 133 |
| 3 | @BitcoinMagazineNews / aggregator | 24 | 59 % 37–78 % | −1.1 pp | −0.5 pp | 0 / 115 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 24 episodes · vs best baseline −1.1 pp · follow vs always-bull −0.5 pp · later unavailable 0 / 115 |
| 4 | @RaoulGMIMacro / on-chain | 20 | 61 % 36–81 % | −3.3 pp | −0.3 pp | 0 / 45 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 20 episodes · vs best baseline −3.3 pp · follow vs always-bull −0.3 pp · later unavailable 0 / 45 |
| 5 | @LarkDavisYouTube / education | 55 | 56 % 41–71 % | −6.1 pp | −0.2 pp | 0 / 161 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 55 episodes · vs best baseline −6.1 pp · follow vs always-bull −0.2 pp · later unavailable 0 / 161 |
| 6 | @honey_xbtTrader / TA | 20 | 59 % 36–79 % | −6.0 pp | −1.2 pp | 0 / 58 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 20 episodes · vs best baseline −6.0 pp · follow vs always-bull −1.2 pp · later unavailable 0 / 58 |
| 7 | @notthreadguyMemecoin KOL | 45 | 55 % 39–70 % | +0.7 pp | −6.3 pp | 0 / 81 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 45 episodes · vs best baseline +0.7 pp · follow vs always-bull −6.3 pp · later unavailable 0 / 81 |
| 8 | @APomplianoMacro / on-chain | 27 | 56 % 35–75 % | +6.1 pp | +0.7 pp | 0 / 116 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 27 episodes · vs best baseline +6.1 pp · follow vs always-bull +0.7 pp · later unavailable 0 / 116 |
| 9 | @gainzy222Memecoin KOL | 45 | 54 % 37–70 % | +0.3 pp | +3.7 pp | 0 / 110 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 45 episodes · vs best baseline +0.3 pp · follow vs always-bull +3.7 pp · later unavailable 0 / 110 |
| 10 | @TechDev_52Trader / TA | 16 | 56 % 30–79 % | −9.2 pp | −1.1 pp | 0 / 30 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 16 episodes · vs best baseline −9.2 pp · follow vs always-bull −1.1 pp · later unavailable 0 / 30 |
| 11 | @IvanOnTechYouTube / education | 68 | 52 % 39–66 % | +3.5 pp | +1.5 pp | 0 / 244 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 68 episodes · vs best baseline +3.5 pp · follow vs always-bull +1.5 pp · later unavailable 0 / 244 |
| 12 | @scottmelkerYouTube / education | 50 | 52 % 36–68 % | −10.8 pp | +0.2 pp | 0 / 119 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 50 episodes · vs best baseline −10.8 pp · follow vs always-bull +0.2 pp · later unavailable 0 / 119 |
| 13 | @DeItaoneNews / aggregator | 21 | 52 % 28–74 % | −8.3 pp | +0.4 pp | 0 / 65 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 21 episodes · vs best baseline −8.3 pp · follow vs always-bull +0.4 pp · later unavailable 0 / 65 |
| 14 | @WatcherGuruNews / aggregator | 31 | 50 % 31–69 % | −13.0 pp | +2.5 pp | 0 / 100 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 31 episodes · vs best baseline −13.0 pp · follow vs always-bull +2.5 pp · later unavailable 0 / 100 |
| 15 | @tolyYouTube / education | 14 | 50 % 25–75 % | +2.6 pp | −0.0 pp | 0 / 45 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 14 episodes · vs best baseline +2.6 pp · follow vs always-bull −0.0 pp · later unavailable 0 / 45 |
| 16 | @CredibleCryptoTrader / TA | 68 | 48 % 35–61 % | −3.2 pp | +1.3 pp | 0 / 209 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 68 episodes · vs best baseline −3.2 pp · follow vs always-bull +1.3 pp · later unavailable 0 / 209 |
| 17 | @ki_young_juMacro / on-chain | 37 | 48 % 31–66 % | −0.5 pp | +2.0 pp | 0 / 97 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 37 episodes · vs best baseline −0.5 pp · follow vs always-bull +2.0 pp · later unavailable 0 / 97 |
| 18 | @MustStopMuradMemecoin KOL | 21 | 48 % 25–72 % | −18.5 pp | +0.0 pp | 0 / 77 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 21 episodes · vs best baseline −18.5 pp · follow vs always-bull +0.0 pp · later unavailable 0 / 77 |
| 19 | @lookonchainNews / aggregator | 62 | 48 % 34–61 % | −6.3 pp | +3.1 pp | 0 / 111 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 62 episodes · vs best baseline −6.3 pp · follow vs always-bull +3.1 pp · later unavailable 0 / 111 |
| 20 | @CryptoTony__Trader / TA | 133 | 47 % 37–57 % | −9.7 pp | −0.7 pp | 0 / 312 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 133 episodes · vs best baseline −9.7 pp · follow vs always-bull −0.7 pp · later unavailable 0 / 312 |
| 21 | @CryptoHayesMacro / on-chain | 10 | 46 % 17–78 % | −44.8 pp | −0.7 pp | 0 / 28 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 10 episodes · vs best baseline −44.8 pp · follow vs always-bull −0.7 pp · later unavailable 0 / 28 |
| 22 | @AltcoinSherpaTrader / TA | 138 | 46 % 37–55 % | −4.1 pp | +0.3 pp | 0 / 343 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 138 episodes · vs best baseline −4.1 pp · follow vs always-bull +0.3 pp · later unavailable 0 / 343 |
| 23 | @ZssBeckerMemecoin KOL | 20 | 45 % 24–68 % | −13.5 pp | −0.2 pp | 0 / 72 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 20 episodes · vs best baseline −13.5 pp · follow vs always-bull −0.2 pp · later unavailable 0 / 72 |
| 24 | @100trillionUSDMacro / on-chain | 19 | 44 % 22–69 % | −10.1 pp | −1.3 pp | 0 / 59 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 19 episodes · vs best baseline −10.1 pp · follow vs always-bull −1.3 pp · later unavailable 0 / 59 |
| 25 | @glassnodeMacro / on-chain | 75 | 44 % 32–57 % | −8.7 pp | +1.5 pp | 0 / 147 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 75 episodes · vs best baseline −8.7 pp · follow vs always-bull +1.5 pp · later unavailable 0 / 147 |
| 26 | @coinbureauYouTube / education | 58 | 44 % 31–58 % | −8.0 pp | −0.2 pp | 0 / 144 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 58 episodes · vs best baseline −8.0 pp · follow vs always-bull −0.2 pp · later unavailable 0 / 144 |
| 27 | @CryptoMichNLTrader / TA | 144 | 44 % 35–53 % | −7.0 pp | −0.2 pp | 0 / 408 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 144 episodes · vs best baseline −7.0 pp · follow vs always-bull −0.2 pp · later unavailable 0 / 408 |
| 28 | @PeterLBrandtTrader / TA | 46 | 43 % 28–59 % | −2.5 pp | +1.2 pp | 0 / 88 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 46 episodes · vs best baseline −2.5 pp · follow vs always-bull +1.2 pp · later unavailable 0 / 88 |
| 29 | @DaanCryptoTrader / TA | 171 | 44 % 36–52 % | −6.9 pp | +0.9 pp | 0 / 376 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 171 episodes · vs best baseline −6.9 pp · follow vs always-bull +0.9 pp · later unavailable 0 / 376 |
| 30 | @krugermacroMacro / on-chain | 19 | 41 % 21–66 % | −8.6 pp | −2.7 pp | 0 / 49 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 19 episodes · vs best baseline −8.6 pp · follow vs always-bull −2.7 pp · later unavailable 0 / 49 |
| 31 | @CryptoGodJohnMemecoin KOL | 78 | 42 % 30–55 % | −9.7 pp | +1.3 pp | 0 / 253 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 78 episodes · vs best baseline −9.7 pp · follow vs always-bull +1.3 pp · later unavailable 0 / 253 |
| 32 | @PeterSchiffMacro / on-chain | 28 | 40 % 23–61 % | −7.7 pp | −0.0 pp | 0 / 158 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 28 episodes · vs best baseline −7.7 pp · follow vs always-bull −0.0 pp · later unavailable 0 / 158 |
| 33 | @CryptoWendyOYouTube / education | 61 | 41 % 28–55 % | −11.3 pp | −2.1 pp | 0 / 129 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 61 episodes · vs best baseline −11.3 pp · follow vs always-bull −2.1 pp · later unavailable 0 / 129 |
| 34 | @CryptoKaleoTrader / TA | 70 | 40 % 28–53 % | −8.7 pp | −0.1 pp | 0 / 238 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 70 episodes · vs best baseline −8.7 pp · follow vs always-bull −0.1 pp · later unavailable 0 / 238 |
| 35 | @Pentosh1Trader / TA | 42 | 37 % 23–54 % | −12.1 pp | +1.0 pp | 0 / 89 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 42 episodes · vs best baseline −12.1 pp · follow vs always-bull +1.0 pp · later unavailable 0 / 89 |
| 36 | @rektcapitalTrader / TA | 102 | 37 % 28–48 % | −11.3 pp | +0.3 pp | 0 / 283 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 102 episodes · vs best baseline −11.3 pp · follow vs always-bull +0.3 pp · later unavailable 0 / 283 |
| 37 | @WuBlockchainNews / aggregator | 26 | 34 % 18–56 % | −14.4 pp | −0.1 pp | 0 / 61 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 26 episodes · vs best baseline −14.4 pp · follow vs always-bull −0.1 pp · later unavailable 0 / 61 |
| 38 | @cryptomanranYouTube / education | 44 | 35 % 21–52 % | −30.0 pp | +2.9 pp | 0 / 114 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 44 episodes · vs best baseline −30.0 pp · follow vs always-bull +2.9 pp · later unavailable 0 / 114 |
| 39 | @CryptoCapo_Trader / TA | 32 | 33 % 18–54 % | −19.3 pp | +0.0 pp | 0 / 83 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 32 episodes · vs best baseline −19.3 pp · follow vs always-bull +0.0 pp · later unavailable 0 / 83 |
| 40 | @frankdegodsMemecoin KOL | 35 | 33 % 19–52 % | −17.6 pp | +1.5 pp | 0 / 91 | BTC 7 days ago: no current view | 35 episodes · vs best baseline −17.6 pp · follow vs always-bull +1.5 pp · later unavailable 0 / 91 |
Still collecting evidence · 7
Fewer than 10 measured episodes: no rank and no verdict yet. Pages of these accounts stay out of search results until they have enough.
| Account | Measured episodes | BTC stance 7 days ago |
|---|---|---|
| @farzynessYouTube / education | 8 / 10 | no current view |
| @IfindRetardsYouTube / education | 2 / 10 | no current view |
| @elonmuskYouTube / education | 1 / 10 | no current view |
| @CryptoRoverYouTube / education | 0 / 10 | no current view |
| @InvestAnswersYouTube / education | 0 / 10 | no current view |
| @OrangieMemecoin KOL | 0 / 10 | no current view |
| @tier10kNews / aggregator | 0 / 10 | no current view |
How we measure
- A call is a post stating where a market goes (up, down, the bottom or the top is in, a range), on BTC, ETH, SOL, altcoins, meme coins or the whole market. Posts are classified automatically; a stratified sample is audited.
- Horizons are fixed in advance: 7 and 30 days. A call that states its horizon is tested on the matching one; a call without one is tested on both, each with half weight, and both results are shown.
- A hit means the price moved in the called direction by more than half of its usual move over that horizon (volatility of the 30 days before the call). Conditional calls ("if BTC loses 60k") count only once the condition is met.
- Repeating the same call is one prediction (an episode), not ten.
- Every account is compared with simple baselines on the same dates: always bullish, a coin flip and following the last 7 days' trend. A hit rate means little unless it beats them.
- Three separate scores, never multiplied: predictive (hit rate with a 95 % interval), economic (the return of following the calls against always-bullish) and integrity (posts that later became unavailable, promotions).
- Fewer than 10 measured episodes = insufficient evidence: no rank and no verdict.
- "Later unavailable" means we can no longer see a post we stored (deleted, or the account became private or suspended). It is reported, not judged.
- Known limits: the accounts are the ones well known today, and history only shows posts that still existed when we first read them.
Members see every account's current stance and the consensus live, without the 7-day delay.
Request accessNot financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.