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@toly

toly 🇺🇸 · YouTube / education · x.com/toly · #15 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 50 % (95 % interval 25–75 %) on 14 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 47 % (coin flip). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive50 %

95 % interval 25–75 % · n 14 · best baseline 47 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic−0.0 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −4.4 pp to +4.3 pp · n 22

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 45 calls later unavailable · promotions 1

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days0––
Stated horizon, 30 days0––
No horizon, tested at 7 days1250 %25–75 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days1050 %24–76 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
23 Oct 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
9 Sep 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
8 Sep 2026SOL: up7 d7 d: no clear movepost ↗
26 Aug 2026SOL: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
15 Aug 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
15 Aug 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
13 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
31 Jul 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
9 Jul 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
9 Jul 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
2 Jul 2026SOL: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
24 Jun 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Jun 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Jun 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
14 May 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
13 May 2026SOL: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
28 Apr 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
11 Apr 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
12 Feb 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
31 Jan 2026meme coins: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
31 Jan 2026crypto market: down> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
31 Jan 2026crypto market: bottom is in> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
9 Jan 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
13 Dec 2025SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
11 Dec 2025altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.