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Hit rate 59 % (95 % interval 37–78 %) on 24 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 61 % (always bullish). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.
Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →
Predictive59 %
95 % interval 37–78 % · n 24 · best baseline 61 %
not distinguishable from the simple baselinesEconomic−0.5 pp
return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −1.5 pp to +0.5 pp · n 28
no clear difference from always-bullishIntegrity0
of 115 calls later unavailable · promotions 7
By horizon
| Group | Measured | Hit rate | 95 % interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stated horizon, 7 days | 1 | 100 % | 21–100 % |
| Stated horizon, 30 days | 1 | 100 % | 21–100 % |
| No horizon, tested at 7 days | 15 | 60 % | 36–80 % |
| No horizon, tested at 30 days | 18 | 50 % | 29–71 % |
Calls (older than 7 days)
| Date | Call | Horizon | Result | Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: pending | post ↗ |
| 29 Oct 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: pending | post ↗ |
| 15 Oct 2026 | BTC: bottom is in | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 15 Oct 2026 | BTC: up | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 14 Oct 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 30 Sep 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 30 Sep 2026 | BTC: range | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 29 Sep 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 14 Sep 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 28 Aug 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 28 Aug 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 28 Aug 2026 | BTC: bottom is in | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 28 Aug 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 13 Aug 2026 | BTC: bottom is in | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 12 Aug 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 d | 7 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 12 Aug 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 12 Aug 2026 | BTC: bottom is in | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 30 Jul 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 15 Jul 2026 | crypto market: up | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 15 Jul 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 29 Jun 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 29 Jun 2026 | crypto market: up | 30 d | 30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 14 Jun 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 12 Jun 2026 | BTC: bottom is in | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 13 May 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 30 Mar 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 12 Mar 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 27 Feb 2026 | BTC: bottom is in | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 14 Feb 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 31 Jan 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 30 Jan 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 15 Jan 2026 | crypto market: up | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 15 Dec 2025 | BTC: up | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 15 Dec 2025 | BTC: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 12 Dec 2025 | BTC: range | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 12 Dec 2025 | BTC: up | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
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Request accessNot financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.