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@IvanOnTech

Ivan on Tech 🍳 Founder @ Bullmania · YouTube / education · x.com/IvanOnTech · #11 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 52 % (95 % interval 39–66 %) on 68 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 49 % (coin flip). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive52 %

95 % interval 39–66 % · n 68 · best baseline 49 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic+1.5 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −1.6 pp to +4.6 pp · n 86

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 244 calls later unavailable · promotions 13

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days10 %0–79 %
Stated horizon, 30 days2100 %34–100 %
No horizon, tested at 7 days4650 %36–64 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days4953 %39–66 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
4 Nov 2026crypto market: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
3 Nov 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: pendingpost ↗
28 Oct 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: pendingpost ↗
26 Sep 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
25 Sep 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
25 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
21 Sep 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
14 Sep 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
30 Aug 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
27 Aug 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
27 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
24 Aug 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
14 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
10 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
10 Aug 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
10 Aug 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
9 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
9 Aug 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
9 Aug 2026meme coins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
29 Jul 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
28 Jul 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
28 Jul 2026SOL: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
28 Jul 2026BTC: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
27 Jul 2026crypto market: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
27 Jul 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
27 Jul 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
26 Jul 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
15 Jul 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
14 Jul 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
9 Jul 2026meme coins: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
6 Jul 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
6 Jul 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
3 Jul 2026BTC: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
2 Jul 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
30 Jun 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
19 Jun 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Jun 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Jun 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
14 Jun 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
12 Jun 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.