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@TechDev_52
TechDev · Trader / TA · x.com/TechDev_52 · #10 of 40 ranked
Hit rate 56 % (95 % interval 30–79 %) on 16 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 65 % (always bullish). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.
Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →
Predictive56 %
95 % interval 30–79 % · n 16 · best baseline 65 %
not distinguishable from the simple baselinesEconomic−1.1 pp
return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −3.1 pp to +1.0 pp · n 17
no clear difference from always-bullishIntegrity0
of 30 calls later unavailable · promotions 0
By horizon
| Group | Measured | Hit rate | 95 % interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stated horizon, 7 days | 0 | – | – |
| Stated horizon, 30 days | 0 | – | – |
| No horizon, tested at 7 days | 15 | 60 % | 36–80 % |
| No horizon, tested at 30 days | 10 | 50 % | 24–76 % |
Calls (older than 7 days)
| Date | Call | Horizon | Result | Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 21 Sep 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 16 Sep 2026 | crypto market: bottom is in | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 3 Sep 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 30 Aug 2026 | altcoins: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 23 Aug 2026 | BTC: range | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 8 Aug 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 19 Jul 2026 | altcoins: bottom is in | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 27 Jun 2026 | altcoins: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 5 Jun 2026 | ETH: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 5 Jun 2026 | ETH: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 22 May 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 27 Apr 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 5 Feb 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 30 Jan 2026 | BTC: up | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 16 Jan 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 27 Dec 2025 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 27 Dec 2025 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 6 Dec 2025 | altcoins: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
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Request accessNot financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.