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Lookonchain · News / aggregator · x.com/lookonchain · #19 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 48 % (95 % interval 34–61 %) on 62 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 54 % (7-day trend). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive48 %

95 % interval 34–61 % · n 62 · best baseline 54 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic+3.1 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −0.6 pp to +6.8 pp · n 73

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 111 calls later unavailable · promotions 0

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days1650 %28–72 %
Stated horizon, 30 days2100 %34–100 %
No horizon, tested at 7 days3348 %32–65 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days3238 %23–55 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
7 Nov 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
30 Oct 2026ETH: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: pendingpost ↗
30 Oct 2026meme coins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
29 Oct 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: pendingpost ↗
28 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
28 Oct 2026ETH: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: pendingpost ↗
15 Oct 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
14 Oct 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
14 Oct 2026ETH: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
14 Oct 2026ETH: up7 d7 d: no clear movepost ↗
30 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
30 Sep 2026ETH: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
27 Sep 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
27 Sep 2026SOL: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
12 Sep 2026BTC: up7 d7 d: hitpost ↗
31 Aug 2026ETH: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
30 Aug 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
29 Aug 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
13 Aug 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
12 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 d7 d: hitpost ↗
12 Aug 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
11 Aug 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
31 Jul 2026ETH: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
30 Jul 2026BTC: up30 d30 d: hitpost ↗
30 Jul 2026ETH: up30 d30 d: hitpost ↗
30 Jul 2026BTC: range7 d7 d: hitpost ↗
30 Jul 2026ETH: down7 d7 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Jul 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
14 Jul 2026BTC: down7 d7 d: misspost ↗
13 Jul 2026BTC: up7 d7 d: hitpost ↗
27 Jun 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
26 Jun 2026SOL: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
26 Jun 2026BTC: down7 d7 d: misspost ↗
26 Jun 2026ETH: down7 d7 d: misspost ↗
15 Jun 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Jun 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Jun 2026ETH: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Jun 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Jun 2026altcoins: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
14 Jun 2026meme coins: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.