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@krugermacro
Alex Krüger · Macro / on-chain · x.com/krugermacro · #30 of 40 ranked
Hit rate 41 % (95 % interval 21–66 %) on 19 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 50 % (coin flip). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.
Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →
Predictive41 %
95 % interval 21–66 % · n 19 · best baseline 50 %
not distinguishable from the simple baselinesEconomic−2.7 pp
return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −8.6 pp to +3.2 pp · n 18
no clear difference from always-bullishIntegrity0
of 49 calls later unavailable · promotions 0
By horizon
| Group | Measured | Hit rate | 95 % interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stated horizon, 7 days | 0 | – | – |
| Stated horizon, 30 days | 1 | 100 % | 21–100 % |
| No horizon, tested at 7 days | 16 | 31 % | 14–56 % |
| No horizon, tested at 30 days | 11 | 45 % | 21–72 % |
Calls (older than 7 days)
| Date | Call | Horizon | Result | Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: pending | post ↗ |
| 4 Nov 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: pending | post ↗ |
| 11 Sep 2026 | crypto market: up | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 3 Aug 2026 | BTC: range | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 30 Jul 2026 | crypto market: range | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 28 Jul 2026 | meme coins: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 14 Jun 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 6 Jun 2026 | BTC: range | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 4 Jun 2026 | BTC: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 4 Jun 2026 | ETH: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 3 Jun 2026 | BTC: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 3 Jun 2026 | crypto market: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 14 May 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 22 Apr 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 14 Apr 2026 | altcoins: up | 30 d | 30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 8 Apr 2026 | BTC: up | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 23 Mar 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 18 Mar 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 1 Mar 2026 | BTC: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 1 Mar 2026 | BTC: down | 30 d | 30 d: condition not met | post ↗ |
| 26 Feb 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 24 Feb 2026 | BTC: range | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 7 Feb 2026 | crypto market: bottom is in | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 6 Feb 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 5 Feb 2026 | BTC: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 31 Jan 2026 | BTC: range | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 11 Dec 2025 | BTC: range | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: hit | post ↗ |
Members see every account's current stance and the consensus live, without the 7-day delay.
Request accessNot financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.