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@notthreadguy

threadguy · Memecoin KOL · x.com/notthreadguy · #7 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 55 % (95 % interval 39–70 %) on 45 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 54 % (always bullish). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive55 %

95 % interval 39–70 % · n 45 · best baseline 54 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic−6.3 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −19.7 pp to +7.0 pp · n 55

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 81 calls later unavailable · promotions 2

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days0––
Stated horizon, 30 days1100 %21–100 %
No horizon, tested at 7 days3954 %39–68 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days3253 %36–69 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
21 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
26 Sep 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
22 Sep 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
21 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
21 Sep 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
21 Sep 2026meme coins: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
21 Sep 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
20 Sep 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
14 Sep 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
14 Sep 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
31 Aug 2026BTC: top is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
30 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
30 Aug 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
30 Aug 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
29 Aug 2026crypto market: top is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
26 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
14 Aug 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
13 Aug 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
13 Aug 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
13 Aug 2026meme coins: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
13 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
13 Aug 2026altcoins: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
10 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
28 Jul 2026ETH: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
15 Jul 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
13 Jul 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
8 Jul 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
27 Jun 2026meme coins: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
26 Jun 2026crypto market: up30 d30 d: hitpost ↗
2 Jun 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
31 May 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
31 May 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
29 May 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
28 May 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
23 Apr 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
31 Mar 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
24 Mar 2026meme coins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
23 Mar 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
23 Mar 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.