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@PeterLBrandt

The Factor Report · Trader / TA · x.com/PeterLBrandt · #28 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 43 % (95 % interval 28–59 %) on 46 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 46 % (coin flip). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive43 %

95 % interval 28–59 % · n 46 · best baseline 46 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic+1.2 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −2.6 pp to +5.0 pp · n 45

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 88 calls later unavailable · promotions 3

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days0––
Stated horizon, 30 days0––
No horizon, tested at 7 days3949 %34–64 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days3336 %22–53 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
30 Oct 2026altcoins: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: pendingpost ↗
23 Oct 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: pendingpost ↗
23 Oct 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
6 Oct 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
1 Oct 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
22 Sep 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
22 Sep 2026altcoins: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
20 Sep 2026altcoins: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
18 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
10 Sep 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
28 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
20 Aug 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
5 Aug 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
3 Aug 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
1 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
22 Jul 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
15 Jul 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
8 Jul 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
7 Jul 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
5 Jul 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
19 Jun 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
18 Jun 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
16 Jun 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
14 Jun 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
11 Jun 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
10 Jun 2026crypto market: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
4 Jun 2026BTC: bottom is in> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
2 Jun 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: condition not met30 d: condition not metpost ↗
16 May 2026SOL: down7 + 30 d7 d: condition not met30 d: condition not metpost ↗
13 May 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
10 May 2026SOL: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
27 Apr 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
23 Apr 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
23 Apr 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
17 Apr 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: condition not met30 d: condition not metpost ↗
27 Mar 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
23 Mar 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
20 Mar 2026crypto market: top is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
19 Mar 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
18 Mar 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.