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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal · Macro / on-chain · x.com/RaoulGMI · #4 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 61 % (95 % interval 36–81 %) on 20 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 64 % (always bullish). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive61 %

95 % interval 36–81 % · n 20 · best baseline 64 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic−0.3 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −3.9 pp to +3.3 pp · n 23

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 45 calls later unavailable · promotions 1

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days0––
Stated horizon, 30 days0––
No horizon, tested at 7 days1567 %42–85 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days1354 %29–77 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
1 Nov 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
20 Oct 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
15 Oct 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
18 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
22 Aug 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
22 Aug 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
22 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
14 Aug 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
13 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
6 Aug 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
4 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
28 Jul 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
27 Jul 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
23 Jul 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
17 Jul 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
13 Jul 2026altcoins: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
9 Jul 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
18 Jun 2026crypto market: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
11 May 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
8 May 2026ETH: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
14 Apr 2026crypto market: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
7 Apr 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
8 Mar 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
8 Mar 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
26 Feb 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
29 Jan 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
10 Jan 2026ETH: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
10 Jan 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.