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@CryptoMichNL

Michaël van de Poppe · Trader / TA · x.com/CryptoMichNL · #27 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 44 % (95 % interval 35–53 %) on 144 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 51 % (always bullish). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive44 %

95 % interval 35–53 % · n 144 · best baseline 51 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic−0.2 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −1.8 pp to +1.4 pp · n 151

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 408 calls later unavailable · promotions 21

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days1331 %13–58 %
Stated horizon, 30 days250 %9–91 %
No horizon, tested at 7 days10843 %34–52 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days8748 %38–59 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
31 Oct 2026altcoins: bottom is in> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
31 Oct 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
31 Oct 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
31 Oct 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
31 Oct 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
31 Oct 2026altcoins: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
31 Oct 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: pending30 d: pendingpost ↗
31 Oct 2026BTC: up7 d7 d: misspost ↗
30 Oct 2026crypto market: bottom is in30 d30 d: pendingpost ↗
30 Oct 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
30 Oct 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
30 Oct 2026crypto market: down> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
30 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
30 Oct 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: pendingpost ↗
30 Oct 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
15 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
15 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: pendingpost ↗
15 Oct 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
15 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
15 Oct 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
14 Oct 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
14 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
14 Oct 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
30 Sep 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
29 Sep 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
15 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
15 Sep 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
15 Sep 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
15 Sep 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: condition not met30 d: condition not metpost ↗
15 Sep 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Sep 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
15 Sep 2026BTC: down7 d7 d: misspost ↗
15 Sep 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
14 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
31 Aug 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
31 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
31 Aug 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
30 Aug 2026BTC: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
30 Aug 2026ETH: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
30 Aug 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.