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@Pentosh1

🐧 · Trader / TA · x.com/Pentosh1 · #35 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 37 % (95 % interval 23–54 %) on 42 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 49 % (coin flip). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive37 %

95 % interval 23–54 % · n 42 · best baseline 49 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic+1.0 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −2.6 pp to +4.6 pp · n 40

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 89 calls later unavailable · promotions 0

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days20 %0–66 %
Stated horizon, 30 days0––
No horizon, tested at 7 days3250 %34–66 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days3129 %16–47 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
12 Oct 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
6 Oct 2026altcoins: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
6 Oct 2026altcoins: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
5 Oct 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
1 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
18 Sep 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
18 Sep 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
12 Sep 2026ETH: up7 d7 d: no clear movepost ↗
12 Sep 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
6 Sep 2026meme coins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
6 Sep 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
13 Aug 2026altcoins: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
5 Aug 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
3 Aug 2026altcoins: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
31 Jul 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
31 Jul 2026ETH: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
31 Jul 2026SOL: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
26 Jul 2026crypto market: up7 d7 d: misspost ↗
23 Jul 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
23 Jul 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
23 Jul 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
15 Jul 2026crypto market: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
14 Jul 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
14 Jul 2026ETH: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
13 Jul 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
12 Jul 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
12 Jul 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
9 Jul 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
9 Jul 2026altcoins: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
29 Jun 2026meme coins: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
25 Jun 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
26 May 2026meme coins: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
24 May 2026altcoins: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
24 May 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
23 May 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
9 May 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
6 May 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
5 May 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
5 May 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
16 Mar 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.