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@LarkDavis

Lark Davis · YouTube / education · x.com/LarkDavis · #5 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 56 % (95 % interval 41–71 %) on 55 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 62 % (always bullish). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive56 %

95 % interval 41–71 % · n 55 · best baseline 62 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic−0.2 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −2.8 pp to +2.3 pp · n 58

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 161 calls later unavailable · promotions 9

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days10 %0–79 %
Stated horizon, 30 days1100 %21–100 %
No horizon, tested at 7 days3560 %44–74 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days3954 %39–68 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
31 Oct 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: pendingpost ↗
31 Oct 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: pendingpost ↗
29 Oct 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
27 Oct 2026altcoins: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: pendingpost ↗
27 Oct 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
15 Oct 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
15 Oct 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
13 Oct 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
13 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
15 Sep 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Sep 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
13 Sep 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
11 Sep 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
11 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
31 Aug 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
31 Aug 2026SOL: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
31 Aug 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
28 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
28 Aug 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
15 Aug 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
14 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
29 Jul 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
29 Jul 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
28 Jul 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
15 Jul 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
15 Jul 2026BTC: bottom is in> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
14 Jul 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
14 Jul 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
13 Jul 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
29 Jun 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
28 Jun 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
28 Jun 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
26 Jun 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Jun 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
13 Jun 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
11 Jun 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
13 May 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
12 May 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
27 Apr 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
27 Apr 2026altcoins: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.