← All macro influencers

@APompliano

Anthony Pompliano 🌪 · Macro / on-chain · x.com/APompliano · #8 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 56 % (95 % interval 35–75 %) on 27 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 50 % (7-day trend). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive56 %

95 % interval 35–75 % · n 27 · best baseline 50 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic+0.7 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −1.6 pp to +3.1 pp · n 36

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 116 calls later unavailable · promotions 12

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days10 %0–79 %
Stated horizon, 30 days0––
No horizon, tested at 7 days2162 %41–79 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days1856 %34–75 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
7 Nov 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
25 Oct 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
10 Oct 2026crypto market: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
24 Sep 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
22 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
12 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: condition not met30 d: condition not metpost ↗
7 Sep 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
21 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
14 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
23 Jul 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
22 Jul 2026altcoins: bottom is in> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
22 Jul 2026BTC: range> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
15 Jul 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
29 Jun 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
20 Jun 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
19 Jun 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
11 Jun 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
4 Jun 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
2 Jun 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
28 May 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
23 May 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
6 May 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
5 May 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
4 May 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
21 Apr 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
7 Apr 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
31 Mar 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
27 Mar 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
23 Mar 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
23 Mar 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
13 Mar 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
11 Mar 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
2 Mar 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
26 Feb 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
21 Feb 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
10 Feb 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
9 Feb 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
9 Jan 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
6 Jan 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
6 Jan 2026BTC: down> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗

Members see every account's current stance and the consensus live, without the 7-day delay.

Request access

Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.