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@CryptoKaleo

K A L E O · Trader / TA · x.com/CryptoKaleo · #34 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 40 % (95 % interval 28–53 %) on 70 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 49 % (coin flip). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive40 %

95 % interval 28–53 % · n 70 · best baseline 49 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic−0.1 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −2.0 pp to +1.8 pp · n 76

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 238 calls later unavailable · promotions 6

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days367 %21–94 %
Stated horizon, 30 days450 %15–85 %
No horizon, tested at 7 days4641 %28–56 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days5034 %22–48 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
31 Oct 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
28 Oct 2026meme coins: up7 d7 d: misspost ↗
28 Oct 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
27 Oct 2026altcoins: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
27 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
15 Oct 2026meme coins: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
14 Oct 2026BTC: range30 d30 d: misspost ↗
14 Oct 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
13 Oct 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
13 Oct 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
30 Sep 2026BTC: up30 d30 d: misspost ↗
30 Sep 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
30 Sep 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
29 Sep 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
15 Sep 2026meme coins: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
14 Sep 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
14 Sep 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
31 Aug 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
31 Aug 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
31 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
31 Aug 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
31 Aug 2026meme coins: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
31 Aug 2026crypto market: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
30 Aug 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
15 Aug 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
14 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
14 Aug 2026meme coins: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
13 Aug 2026BTC: bottom is in30 d30 d: hitpost ↗
31 Jul 2026crypto market: bottom is in30 d30 d: hitpost ↗
31 Jul 2026altcoins: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
31 Jul 2026meme coins: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
30 Jul 2026ETH: down> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
30 Jul 2026crypto market: top is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
29 Jul 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
14 Jul 2026BTC: down> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
14 Jul 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: condition not met30 d: condition not metpost ↗
10 Jul 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
30 Jun 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
30 Jun 2026SOL: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
30 Jun 2026BTC: up7 d7 d: hitpost ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.