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@honey_xbt
Honey · Trader / TA · x.com/honey_xbt · #6 of 40 ranked
Hit rate 59 % (95 % interval 36–79 %) on 20 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 65 % (always bullish). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.
Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →
Predictive59 %
95 % interval 36–79 % · n 20 · best baseline 65 %
not distinguishable from the simple baselinesEconomic−1.2 pp
return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −3.3 pp to +1.0 pp · n 22
no clear difference from always-bullishIntegrity0
of 58 calls later unavailable · promotions 0
By horizon
| Group | Measured | Hit rate | 95 % interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stated horizon, 7 days | 2 | 50 % | 9–91 % |
| Stated horizon, 30 days | 1 | 100 % | 21–100 % |
| No horizon, tested at 7 days | 14 | 57 % | 33–79 % |
| No horizon, tested at 30 days | 12 | 58 % | 32–81 % |
Calls (older than 7 days)
| Date | Call | Horizon | Result | Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: pending | post ↗ |
| 1 Oct 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 21 Sep 2026 | SOL: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 18 Sep 2026 | meme coins: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 24 Aug 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 24 Aug 2026 | SOL: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 24 Aug 2026 | ETH: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 21 Aug 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 20 Aug 2026 | crypto market: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 19 Aug 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 18 Aug 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 7 Jul 2026 | BTC: up | 30 d | 30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 2 Jul 2026 | BTC: up | 7 d | 7 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 1 Jul 2026 | ETH: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 29 Jun 2026 | BTC: up | 30 d | 30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 5 May 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 22 Apr 2026 | BTC: bottom is in | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: condition not met30 d: condition not met | post ↗ |
| 22 Apr 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 17 Apr 2026 | BTC: range | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 17 Apr 2026 | ETH: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 20 Mar 2026 | ETH: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 10 Mar 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 9 Mar 2026 | BTC: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: condition not met30 d: condition not met | post ↗ |
| 9 Mar 2026 | BTC: up | 7 d | 7 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 5 Mar 2026 | BTC: range | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 2 Mar 2026 | altcoins: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 25 Feb 2026 | BTC: range | 7 d | 7 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 16 Feb 2026 | BTC: up | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 5 Jan 2026 | BTC: up | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
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Request accessNot financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.