@CryptoHayes

Arthur Hayes · Macro / on-chain · x.com/CryptoHayes · #21 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 46 % (95 % interval 17–78 %) on 10 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 91 % (7-day trend). Verdict: below the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive46 %

95 % interval 17–78 % · n 10 · best baseline 91 %

below the simple baselines

Economic−0.7 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −3.9 pp to +2.5 pp · n 12

no clear difference from always-bullish

Integrity0

of 28 calls later unavailable · promotions 0

By horizon

Group	Measured	Hit rate	95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days	0	–	–
Stated horizon, 30 days	0	–	–
No horizon, tested at 7 days	8	38 %	14–69 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days	5	60 %	23–88 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

Date	Call	Horizon	Result	Post
5 Nov 2026	crypto market: down	7 + 30 d	7 d: hit30 d: pending	post ↗
17 Sep 2026	crypto market: up	7 + 30 d	7 d: hit30 d: no clear move	post ↗
22 Aug 2026	altcoins: up	7 + 30 d	7 d: no clear move30 d: hit	post ↗
5 Aug 2026	BTC: up	7 + 30 d	7 d: no clear move30 d: hit	post ↗
1 Jun 2026	altcoins: up	7 + 30 d	7 d: miss30 d: miss	post ↗
30 May 2026	SOL: up	7 + 30 d	7 d: miss30 d: miss	post ↗
16 Apr 2026	BTC: down	7 + 30 d	7 d: miss30 d: no clear move	post ↗
16 Apr 2026	crypto market: down	7 + 30 d	7 d: miss30 d: no clear move	post ↗
16 Apr 2026	BTC: up	7 + 30 d	7 d: hit30 d: no clear move	post ↗
16 Apr 2026	BTC: range	7 + 30 d	7 d: miss30 d: hit	post ↗
12 Mar 2026	BTC: up	7 + 30 d	7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move	post ↗
13 Jan 2026	BTC: up	> 60 d	long-term (not scored)	post ↗
20 Dec 2025	ETH: down	7 + 30 d	7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move	post ↗
19 Dec 2025	BTC: up	7 + 30 d	7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move	post ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.