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Hit rate 50 % (95 % interval 31–69 %) on 31 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 63 % (7-day trend). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive50 %

95 % interval 31–69 % · n 31 · best baseline 63 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic+2.5 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −1.3 pp to +6.3 pp · n 41

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 100 calls later unavailable · promotions 0

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days0––
Stated horizon, 30 days10 %0–79 %
No horizon, tested at 7 days2442 %24–61 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days2264 %43–80 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
26 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
15 Oct 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
14 Oct 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
13 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
10 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
28 Aug 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
25 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
7 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
7 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
27 Jul 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
21 Jul 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
21 Jul 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
4 Jul 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
24 Jun 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: condition not met30 d: condition not metpost ↗
24 Jun 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Jun 2026ETH: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
8 Jun 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
31 May 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
28 May 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
15 May 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
6 May 2026BTC: up30 d30 d: misspost ↗
5 May 2026BTC: down> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
7 Apr 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
7 Apr 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
27 Mar 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
22 Mar 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
20 Mar 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
6 Mar 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
6 Mar 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
6 Mar 2026SOL: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
25 Feb 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
25 Feb 2026ETH: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
23 Feb 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Feb 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
13 Feb 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
31 Jan 2026ETH: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
30 Jan 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
29 Jan 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
10 Jan 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
8 Jan 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.