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@cryptomanran

Ran Neuner · YouTube / education · x.com/cryptomanran · #38 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 35 % (95 % interval 21–52 %) on 44 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 65 % (7-day trend). Verdict: below the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive35 %

95 % interval 21–52 % · n 44 · best baseline 65 %

below the simple baselines
Economic+2.9 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % +0.4 pp to +5.4 pp · n 51

adds value over always-bullish
Integrity0

of 114 calls later unavailable · promotions 18

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days20 %0–66 %
Stated horizon, 30 days1100 %21–100 %
No horizon, tested at 7 days3129 %16–47 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days2941 %26–59 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
7 Nov 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
7 Nov 2026crypto market: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
5 Nov 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
3 Nov 2026crypto market: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
3 Nov 2026BTC: up7 d7 d: misspost ↗
30 Oct 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: pendingpost ↗
27 Oct 2026BTC: down> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
19 Oct 2026crypto market: down7 d7 d: no clear movepost ↗
8 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
7 Oct 2026meme coins: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
29 Sep 2026altcoins: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
23 Sep 2026crypto market: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
19 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
17 Sep 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
11 Sep 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
8 Sep 2026meme coins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
7 Sep 2026altcoins: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
30 Aug 2026ETH: up7 d7 d: no clear movepost ↗
30 Aug 2026SOL: up7 d7 d: no clear movepost ↗
28 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
26 Aug 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
25 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
24 Aug 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
23 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
6 Aug 2026BTC: range> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
4 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
26 Jul 2026altcoins: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
9 Jul 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
5 Jul 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
27 Jun 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
24 Jun 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
21 Jun 2026BTC: down> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
17 Jun 2026crypto market: up7 d7 d: misspost ↗
4 Jun 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
4 Jun 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
3 Jun 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
2 Jun 2026BTC: down30 d30 d: hitpost ↗
1 Jun 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
30 May 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
29 May 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.