← All macro influencers

@glassnode

Macro / on-chain · x.com/glassnode · #25 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 44 % (95 % interval 32–57 %) on 75 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 53 % (7-day trend). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive44 %

95 % interval 32–57 % · n 75 · best baseline 53 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic+1.5 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −1.8 pp to +4.7 pp · n 62

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 147 calls later unavailable · promotions 7

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days1100 %21–100 %
Stated horizon, 30 days1100 %21–100 %
No horizon, tested at 7 days6040 %29–53 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days5645 %32–58 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
7 Nov 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
31 Oct 2026ETH: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: pendingpost ↗
27 Oct 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
27 Oct 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: pendingpost ↗
22 Oct 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: pendingpost ↗
21 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: pending30 d: pendingpost ↗
21 Oct 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
21 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: pending30 d: pendingpost ↗
20 Oct 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
18 Oct 2026altcoins: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: pendingpost ↗
16 Oct 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
15 Oct 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
14 Oct 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
13 Oct 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
8 Oct 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
5 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
5 Oct 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
3 Oct 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
22 Sep 2026crypto market: top is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
21 Sep 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
21 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
7 Sep 2026altcoins: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
28 Aug 2026SOL: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
28 Aug 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
24 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
24 Aug 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
19 Aug 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
18 Aug 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
15 Aug 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
14 Aug 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
6 Aug 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
15 Jul 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Jul 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
14 Jul 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
8 Jul 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
5 Jul 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
4 Jul 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
3 Jul 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
3 Jul 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
1 Jul 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗

Members see every account's current stance and the consensus live, without the 7-day delay.

Request access

Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.