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@PeterSchiff

Peter Schiff · Macro / on-chain · x.com/PeterSchiff · #32 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 40 % (95 % interval 23–61 %) on 28 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 48 % (coin flip). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive40 %

95 % interval 23–61 % · n 28 · best baseline 48 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic−0.0 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −2.8 pp to +2.8 pp · n 39

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 158 calls later unavailable · promotions 5

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days0––
Stated horizon, 30 days0––
No horizon, tested at 7 days2245 %27–65 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days2035 %18–57 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
22 Oct 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: pendingpost ↗
20 Oct 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: pendingpost ↗
20 Oct 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: pendingpost ↗
14 Oct 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
14 Oct 2026crypto market: down> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
2 Oct 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
22 Sep 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
5 Sep 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
3 Sep 2026BTC: top is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
25 Aug 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
24 Aug 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
12 Aug 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
28 Jul 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
23 Jul 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
13 Jul 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
10 Jul 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: condition not met30 d: condition not metpost ↗
30 Jun 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: condition not met30 d: condition not metpost ↗
28 Jun 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
28 Jun 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
10 Jun 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
19 May 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
14 May 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
13 May 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
13 May 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
12 May 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
25 Apr 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
22 Apr 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
21 Apr 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
15 Apr 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
25 Mar 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
23 Mar 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
13 Mar 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
12 Mar 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
27 Feb 2026crypto market: down> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
12 Feb 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
12 Feb 2026crypto market: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
12 Feb 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
12 Feb 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: condition not met30 d: condition not metpost ↗
12 Feb 2026BTC: down> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
12 Feb 2026BTC: down> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.