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@100trillionUSD
PlanB · Macro / on-chain · x.com/100trillionUSD · #24 of 40 ranked
Hit rate 44 % (95 % interval 22–69 %) on 19 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 55 % (always bullish). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.
Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →
Predictive44 %
95 % interval 22–69 % · n 19 · best baseline 55 %
not distinguishable from the simple baselinesEconomic−1.3 pp
return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −4.0 pp to +1.4 pp · n 25
no clear difference from always-bullishIntegrity0
of 59 calls later unavailable · promotions 3
By horizon
| Group | Measured | Hit rate | 95 % interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stated horizon, 7 days | 0 | – | – |
| Stated horizon, 30 days | 0 | – | – |
| No horizon, tested at 7 days | 15 | 47 % | 25–70 % |
| No horizon, tested at 30 days | 12 | 42 % | 19–68 % |
Calls (older than 7 days)
| Date | Call | Horizon | Result | Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2026 | crypto market: range | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: pending | post ↗ |
| 31 Oct 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: pending | post ↗ |
| 23 Sep 2026 | BTC: up | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 23 Sep 2026 | BTC: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: condition not met30 d: condition not met | post ↗ |
| 22 Sep 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 22 Sep 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 22 Sep 2026 | BTC: bottom is in | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 21 Sep 2026 | BTC: up | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 19 Sep 2026 | BTC: bottom is in | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 19 Sep 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 14 Sep 2026 | BTC: range | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 13 Sep 2026 | BTC: bottom is in | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 3 Sep 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 1 Sep 2026 | BTC: bottom is in | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 1 Sep 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 1 Sep 2026 | BTC: bottom is in | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 25 Aug 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 1 Aug 2026 | BTC: bottom is in | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 30 Jul 2026 | BTC: up | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 17 Jul 2026 | BTC: range | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 7 Jul 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 1 Jul 2026 | BTC: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 7 Jun 2026 | ETH: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 6 Jun 2026 | altcoins: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 4 Jun 2026 | BTC: up | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 1 Jun 2026 | BTC: top is in | > 60 d | long-term (not scored) | post ↗ |
| 1 Jun 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 1 May 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 7 Apr 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 1 Apr 2026 | BTC: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: miss30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 17 Feb 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 1 Feb 2026 | BTC: down | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: hit | post ↗ |
| 20 Jan 2026 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 20 Jan 2026 | crypto market: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: no clear move30 d: miss | post ↗ |
| 27 Dec 2025 | BTC: up | 7 + 30 d | 7 d: hit30 d: no clear move | post ↗ |
| 1 Dec 2025 | BTC: range | 30 d | 30 d: no price data | post ↗ |
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Request accessNot financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.