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@ki_young_ju

Ki Young Ju · Macro / on-chain · x.com/ki_young_ju · #17 of 40 ranked

Hit rate 48 % (95 % interval 31–66 %) on 37 measured episodes; the best simple baseline on the same dates hit 49 % (7-day trend). Verdict: not distinguishable from the simple baselines.

Stance on BTC 7 days ago: no current view. How we measure →

Predictive48 %

95 % interval 31–66 % · n 37 · best baseline 49 %

not distinguishable from the simple baselines
Economic+2.0 pp

return of following the calls vs always-bullish, per call · 95 % −0.9 pp to +5.0 pp · n 37

no clear difference from always-bullish
Integrity0

of 97 calls later unavailable · promotions 0

By horizon

GroupMeasuredHit rate95 % interval
Stated horizon, 7 days0––
Stated horizon, 30 days0––
No horizon, tested at 7 days2945 %28–62 %
No horizon, tested at 30 days2752 %34–69 %

Calls (older than 7 days)

DateCallHorizonResultPost
3 Nov 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
28 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: pendingpost ↗
27 Oct 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: pendingpost ↗
23 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
23 Oct 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
22 Oct 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: pendingpost ↗
21 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: pendingpost ↗
16 Oct 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: pendingpost ↗
16 Oct 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
14 Oct 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: misspost ↗
14 Oct 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
13 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
13 Oct 2026BTC: bottom is in> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
8 Oct 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
26 Sep 2026ETH: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: misspost ↗
22 Sep 2026BTC: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
21 Sep 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
8 Sep 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
8 Sep 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
25 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
25 Aug 2026crypto market: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
21 Aug 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
13 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
13 Aug 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
13 Aug 2026crypto market: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
12 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
12 Aug 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
10 Aug 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: hitpost ↗
1 Jul 2026BTC: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
27 Jun 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗
26 Jun 2026BTC: bottom is in7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
19 Jun 2026BTC: range7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: hitpost ↗
17 Jun 2026altcoins: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
17 Jun 2026crypto market: up> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
17 Jun 2026altcoins: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: no clear movepost ↗
5 Jun 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: no clear movepost ↗
4 Jun 2026BTC: bottom is in> 60 dlong-term (not scored)post ↗
4 Jun 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: no clear move30 d: no clear movepost ↗
29 May 2026BTC: down7 + 30 d7 d: hit30 d: hitpost ↗
13 May 2026BTC: up7 + 30 d7 d: miss30 d: misspost ↗

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Not financial advice. These are measurements of past public posts, not accusations or endorsements.