What to do with an airdrop in the first 24 hours: sell, hold or hedge
Studies of 2025 token launches found that about 85% of tokens traded below their launch price and that most airdrop wallets sold within 90 days. Unless you have a specific reason to hold, sell at least the part you would regret losing on day one, and only claim through a link you found yourself on the project's official channels.
What happened to airdrops in 2025
Show as table
| Value | Note | |
|---|---|---|
| Tokens below launch price (Arrakis, 125 launches) | 85% | measured at the end of 2025 |
| Tokens below TGE valuation (Memento, 118 launches) | 84.7% | |
| Airdrop wallets that sold within 90 days (Delphi, upper end) | 94% | lower end of the range: 78% |
| Recipients who sold on day one (Arrakis, upper end) | 80% | |
| ZKsync recipients who sold everything on day one (Nansen) | 41% |
Airdrop researcher Stacy Muur summed up the year on X: selling airdrops immediately was the best strategy, shorting them worked but liquidations were common even at low leverage, and everyone grinds, including teams and VCs. DeFi Ignas described the same playbook: claim and sell first, buy back later once the airdrop selling stops.
A rule for the first 24 hours
- Decide before the claim opens. Write down how much you will sell at claim and why you would hold the rest. "I like the project" is not a reason; "I use it daily and the team has a reason to keep the price up" can be.
- Sell at least your "regret amount" on day one. The amount you would be upset to watch fall 80%. For most people that is half or more.
- Check the unlock schedule. If team and investor tokens unlock within 30–90 days, that is selling pressure coming. Haseeb Qureshi (Dragonfly) has argued airdrops should reward holders, and some projects now do (Espresso used "holder scores"), but most still do not.
- Hedging is for experienced traders only. Shorting a fresh token on a perp exchange can lock in the price, but new listings are thin and spike easily. If you do it, use isolated margin and low leverage, as in these perps settings.
- Watch the first hours, not the first minute. Prices often swing wildly while liquidity settles. Selling in two or three parts over the first day avoids selling the exact low.
Do not lose it on the claim page
The day of a big airdrop is the best day of the year for drainers. Fake claim tokens are sent to wallets (for example fake "$CJUP" tokens pretending to be a Jupiter airdrop), and fake claim sites are advertised in replies and search ads. Only claim from a link on the project's official site or verified X account, typed or bookmarked by you, and read what you sign: a claim should never ask you to approve spending of your other tokens.
Related: address poisoning and fake support scams.
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Request accessNot financial advice. Numbers are measurements of past tokens and calls; meme coins are extremely risky and most go to zero.