What is pump.fun? How it works, and what our data says about your odds
Pump.fun is a Solana launchpad where anyone can create a meme coin for a few cents. The price follows a bonding curve until the token 'graduates' to a normal DEX pool. Most tokens never get there: of 6,104 random new tokens we followed, 0.8% doubled after their first 15 minutes.
How pump.fun works
You pick a name, a ticker and an image, pay a small fee, and the token exists. There is no team, no presale and no liquidity to provide. Every token starts with the same supply (one billion) and the same starting price.
Prices follow a bonding curve: a formula that raises the price as people buy and lowers it as they sell. Early buyers get more tokens per SOL. When enough SOL has been put in, the token graduates: its liquidity moves to a normal DEX pool and it trades like any other token, on DEX screeners and trading bots.
Your odds, in numbers
We sampled pump.fun tokens at random, 15 minutes after launch, and followed what the price did next.
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| Value | Note | |
|---|---|---|
| Later reached 2x | 0.8% | from the price 15 minutes after launch |
| Later reached 3x | 0.3% | |
| Graduated to a DEX pool | 0.1% | about 1 in 1,000 in our random sample |
In other words, picking a random new token and waiting is a losing game. The tokens that do graduate do it fast: the median time to graduation was about 15 minutes.
Graduation is not the finish line
Many traders wait for graduation as proof of interest. It helps, but less than people think:
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| Value | Note | |
|---|---|---|
| Reached 2x after graduation | 9.5% | |
| Reached 3x | 7.3% | |
| Reached 5x | 4.9% |
A much better entry point in our data is the first time a token crosses $100,000 of market cap; we explain why in how to trade meme coins. The few that made it big are on our top 100 Solana meme coins list.
Is pump.fun safe?
The platform itself removes some classic rug tricks: mint and freeze authority are off, and the curve holds the liquidity until graduation. What it cannot stop is people. Serial creators, bundled launches and snipers are all common on pump.fun. Before you buy, check the creator's history and the first buyers, as in how to spot a rug pull.
Compare tools: Best Solana trading bots · Best rug checkers
MemeSonar does this for you in real time: every new Solana token, every influencer call and every tracked wallet, scored and filtered for rugs.
Request accessNot financial advice. Numbers are measurements of past tokens and calls; meme coins are extremely risky and most go to zero.