How to spot a pump.fun runner in the first 10 minutes: what 129 launches show
We tested the popular rule 'a runner has $40k market cap and $13k volume by minute 10' on 129 fresh pump.fun launches. Zero matched the rule. Two of the 129 later reached $100k market cap, and both were small at minute 10. Copying the 'runner' wallets the post names was no better: in our wallet data their style wins 22 to 24 % of the time. What does help is waiting for graduation and a $30k+ market cap, then judging the token like any other.
The claim
A widely shared post on X gives a recipe: a pump.fun token that shows $40k market cap and $13k of volume ten minutes after launch is a "runner", and a few named wallets catch them every time. It is the kind of rule that feels right because the runners you remember did look busy early. The question is how many busy-looking tokens went nowhere.
The test
We took 129 fresh launches from the live feed over one evening, recorded market cap and volume at minute 10, and followed each for 24 hours.
Not one of the 129 matched the rule, so the rule would have told you to buy nothing, which is at least cheap. The two tokens that did reach $100k had small market caps at minute 10 and nothing in their first ten minutes separated them from the other 127. Early volume did not predict anything in this sample; this is one evening and 129 tokens, not a law.
The wallets named in the post
The post names a few wallets as runner catchers. We score wallets by their own on-chain history. The style the post describes, buying in the first minute and selling in the first ten, wins 22 to 24 % of the time in our data, with a copy score of 2 and 12 out of 100. A wallet that trades a few hundred times a day and holds for three minutes cannot be copied by a person two minutes behind it; by the time your buy lands, it is selling to you. More on this in our wallet tracking guide.
What the data does support
Show as table
| Value | Note | |
|---|---|---|
| Under $50k market cap | 25% | mostly a sniper's exit |
| $50k – $200k | 30% | |
| $200k – $1M | 38% | best band in our data |
| Over $1M | 26% |
- Skip the bonding curve. Tokens under $30k are not analysed by our tool at all; the first minutes belong to sniper bots and bundles.
- Wait for graduation, then wait again: in our 117 measured graduations the median price five minutes after the pool opened was −9.7 %. The "buy the graduation" bot strategy lost.
- Judge the token at $30k to $1M like any other: liquidity to market cap, holder spread, a dev wallet that is not selling, and who is calling it. Our meme coin list and the rug check on every coin page do exactly this.
- If you still want early tokens, size for 90 % losses: most of them end at zero.
Members get the live feed of graduations with the safety checks applied; this guide is the public version. Not financial advice.
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MemeSonar does this for you in real time: every new Solana token, every influencer call and every tracked wallet, scored and filtered for rugs.
Request accessNot financial advice. Numbers are measurements of past tokens and calls; meme coins are extremely risky and most go to zero.