Prediction markets

How Polymarket markets resolve, how to read the rules and how to spot odds that move before the news.

Prediction marketsHow to read Polymarket rules before you bet: a 6-point checklistOn Polymarket you can predict the event correctly and still lose, because markets resolve on the written rules. A 6-point checklist and how UMA disputes work.

Prediction marketsHow to spot an information leak on Polymarket: when the odds move before the newsOdds on Polymarket have jumped hours before official news several times, from the Nobel Peace Prize to Venezuela. What those moves looked like and how to watch for them yourself.

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